More Saratoga Thoughts, Whitney Card, Extreme Day at Calder

Pletcher's streak at Saratoga continues. He's still sitting on one win, that being the ultra impressive Ready's Image. This is probably one of the most shocking notes from Saratoga thus far. And, also on the Pletcher front, Rags to Riches is back at Belmont and is 50/50 to run in the Alabama, allegedly. If only I could get odds on that...

Tomorrow's Saratoga card is exceptional...does that really need to be stated? The one major problem is rain is in the forecast and could make an extremely challengin card nearly impossible to handicap. The Diana is being billed as the upcoming star Makderah vs millionaire My Typhoon...but it's not that simple. In fact, none of these races are simple, in my opinion. Most players will look to horses like Makderah, My Typhoon, Ermine and Ginger Punch for a possible pick 4 single, but all look very vulnerable to me tomorrow. Some quick race by race thoughts.....

The Diana is a great group. On a firm turf I give Makderah the edge here, the turn of foot she showed in the NY Handicap (G2) was exceptional, she made up two lengths through a 22 3/5 final quarter mile and blew away Masseuse who came back to win the Dance Smartly (G2) over Canadian superfilly Arravale at Woodbine. Quite simply, Makderah could be a really special filly. BUT, on a soft turf this race changes completely. Makderah is by Danehill who is notorious for producing horses who excel on firm turf, and her lone US defeat came over a good turf at Keeneland. Similarly, My Typhoon seems to prefer firm going as well. A yielding turf could definitely play to the Biancone runners Mauralakana and Danzon, both of whom are bred to run on soft going and have shown a preference for such going in the past. Makderah is the top pick on firm, Danzon if the going is soft. One last note on the race is on Meribel who is vastly underrated. Meribel was an easy winner in her last start until Fragoso misjudged the wire at the 1/8 pole and pulled her up, before that she made up 12 lengths in the stretch of a race with a very moderate pace, plus she is undefeated in her two starts over this turf. Don't leave Meribel off of the bottom levels of exotics or any moderately ambitious pick 4.

The Vanderbilt features another great field, but is absolutely chock full of speed. Commentator has shown time and again that with any early pressure he folds. At a short price he is a must play against with Saint Andddan, Attila's Storm, and Abraaj in here (none of them can win either, btw). The top two in here are Diabolical and Benny the Bull, in that order. I love that Benny is moving into Dutrow's barn, but Prairie played to closers when he ran his 108 Beyer last out, and Diabolical is just so solid. The sleeper - Simon Pure. Simon is two for three sprinting, second off the lay-off, and in Asmussen's barn, plus he can close.

The Go For Wand is the race many people will try to single in with Ermine or Ginger Punch. Ermine flat out came up emptt in the Fleur De Lis, and gets very little pace to fire at here. The two turn 1 1/8 distance is a major question mark for Ginger Punch. Teammate may just be over the hill even at her young age, she certainly hasn't seemed to improve. Soul Search is slow and gets no pace to fire at. SO, why not take a flier on Miss Shop or Plaid? If Jerkens could get Onion past Secretariat at Saratoga I think he can knock off Ermine. Trainer aside, Miss Shop's last effort around two turns on dirt resulted in a 101 Beyer in a 6 3/4 length romp. Meanwhile, Plaid never seems to run a bad race, she's not really fast, but she's solid, has a few races that are good enough to be competitive here...and she fits pace-wise. The more I look at this race the more complex it seems to get.

I was convinced Flashy Bull was the best older classic horse in America before the Stephen Foster and he made me look very smart that day. Albarado probably moved a bit too soon, and there is no reason he can't improve. But, this race is incredibly hard to handicap. Hopefully, I'll be alive to a bunch in here (though that probably won't happen). Papi Chullo has looked awesome in his last two and Diamond Stripes just has so much upside. Incredibly tough race.

A few notes on Calder...

I love Tomorrow's Pick to lead after the half mile in the 5th/6th race, he's shone speed in the past and has the apprentice up, I think they're sending. Oh, if you don't know, this is the race where Calder is allowing wagering on who leads after the first half...

The Rocket Man features defending champion Rain Song...and he should repeat. He has never trailed in his PP's after 1/4 mile, and should be ultra tough in here. Look for Fast Trick or either half of the entry to grab second in here.

And don't forget Spenditallbaby is back in tomorrow, good luck to her.