Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Schuylerville Apology and Sanford Picks

I apologize to anyone who read my post on the Schuylerville Stakes run today at Saratoga. To say I was way off would be putting it generously. It was a great race to watch, but I have serious doubts about the level of talent of the runners involved. The time was less than inspiring (1:11 flat). Hands down the most impressive 2YO on the card was Sargent Seattle who crushed the traditionally strong opening day MSW. His final time (1:03 2/5) was impressive, and the way he did it was awesome. Everyone watching has this horse on stablemail after today.

Tomorrow's card features the Sanford (G2) which is headlined by Todd Pletcher and James Scatuorchio's Ready's Image off of his 8 length romp in the Tremont. He's 9/5 on the ML, but I doubt you get that price tomorrow. Still, he's beatable in this spot, he is facing much, much more here than he faced last out. I'll be playing against Fed Watcher, the second choice, also. With Fed Watcher I just don't trust the Beyer...were three 2YO's in an otherwise nondescript MSW at Belmont really that fast? I'll bet against it.

So, who do I like? Tale of Ekati and Sok Sok. Tale of Ekati was awesome in his debut after going off even money. He has an amazing pedigree, his second dam is the ultra blue hen mare Maplejinsky an Alabama winner whose descendants include six graded stakes winners including grade one winners Sky Beauty, Pleasant Home, and Pine Island. He has two excellent works since that debut, and seems to fit very nicely here at 5-1 on the ML.

Sok Sok was awesome closing after early trouble in his debut at Churchill. The main concern is that, for a 2YO stake, there is surprisingly little speed in here, plus he's ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan who is easily the worst jockey in this field. Still, he fits very nicely on talent, and has the best 2YO trainer in America in his corner.

The other two main contenders in here are The Roundhouse and Ascot Hall. Both were very impressive in their debuts from well off the pace, and both have some serious upside. Ascot Hall closed on a track that was very speed favoring, and he closed with an absolute rush, plus the distance can only help. The Roundhouse will be nowhere near the 12-1 ML, whoever sets the NY morning line was completely high when he set this one. Yeah, the son of Spinaway winner Circle The World, and half to Hopeful winner Circular Quay is going to be double digit odds....right....The Roundhouse is an obvious factor on pedigree alone, but like Ascot Hall, may not get enough pace to fire at in here as the only horses with real early speed are Fed Watcher and maybe Ready's Image, Little Nick, and possibly Tale of Ekati.

So, to recap, I'm taking Tale of Ekati slightly ahead of Sok Sok. Hopefully, this works out a little better than the Schuylerville.

1 comment:

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