Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Tomorrow marks opening day at Saratoga, which means the start of the best racing on the American racing calendar year in and year out.

The opening day feature is the Schuylerville (Gr III) for two-year-old fillies.  I'll be providing detailed analysis of all of the graded stakes action at Saratoga throughout the meet, so I might as well start here.  Top to bottom this is a very intriguing race.  A few runners from Belmont and Churchill, along with Todd Pletcher's Lady Chace shipping in from Monmouth.  We'll go horse by horse for the analysis here.

I Promise breaks from the rail in here for trainer Gary Contessa (she was trained by Kim Laudati in her debut).  In her debut she crushed an overmatched group of state-bred maidens after breaking very slowly and rushing up.  She definitely has some early speed and talent, but she was under significant urging from Eibar Coa in that debut, and benefited from a very soft second quarter mile in 23 2/5.  I doubt she has the speed to go with some in here, and she doesn't seem the rating sort after watching her rush up in her debut.  I'll pass.

Dreabon's Legacy broke her maiden at first asking on May 27 before running second in the Grade 3 Debutante on July 7.  Both efforts are better on paper than in reality.  She has the look of a filly that doesn't really even want six furlongs, and will probably be an underlay since she has stakes experience which will be overrated.

According To Plan in the first real threat I see in this field.  Barclay Tagg is exceptional and this filly was awesome in her debut cutting out fractions of 22 flat and 44 1/5 in winning by an emphatic 4 1/4 lengths.  She's a good looking filly with a lot of speed, but seems to have the professionalism it takes to win this type race.

Subtle Aly shocked a lot of people winning her debut at 13-1 at Churchill for Steve Asmussen, yes I said 13-1 for Steve Asmussen.  She may have been the longest shot of any Asmussen two-year-old at the meet (not really, but close) and she not only won, but did so in track record time.  That effort led IEAH to purchase her privately and ship her to the barn of Dick Dutrow.  She has crazy speed and will definitely be a factor from the word go.  She can win, and must be left in most pick 4's, but she isn't among my top two picks.

Yes By West is a threat to pick up a check in here, but probably not a serious win candidate.  Her debut score was a hard fought neck victory at Churchill and Ronny Werner knows how to train babies but can she really outlast the other early speed types in here like Subtle Aly and hang on to win this race...I doubt it.

New York City Girl is a probable scratch which leaves Todd Pletcher with Lady Chace.  On paper her Monmouth debut is hard to figure as she won by 10 3/4 lengths, but ran a pedestrian Beyer of 65.  In this case the Beyer simply doesn't tell the whole story.  She was incredibly impressive visually going from a neck to four lengths on top in the blink of an eye.  She seems to relax well and possesses a ton of talent.  I expect this race to be reminiscent of Henny Hughes' Tremont after his visually awesome but Beyer wise slow debut at Monmouth a few years ago.  The top pick in here.

Dicey D J was awesome closing into very soft fractions and extremely wide in her debut.  Her pedigree  suggests dirt shouldn't be a problem.  She is a must use in here for me.  Oh, and she's a great looking idividual by the way.

The final entry is Blitzing.  Her debut for Asmussen was OK, she basically sat behind a very overmatched speedball who fell apart horribly leaving Blitzing to hold off a slew of closers who were gaining, though not really threatening.  

Lady Chace is the pick in here, make no mistakes about it.  her debut Beyer will make her a better price than she should be.  According To Plan is the main threat (as well as the ML favorite).  Hopefully, Dicey D J will sit back and show a little more professionalism down the stretch, if she does she is a major player to pick up a check in here, not to mention fatten up the exotics.

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