Sunday, July 29, 2007

Saratoga Recap: Is Lawyer Ron Legit? Is Street Sense?

Well, week one of Saratoga is in the books and I haven't lost all of my money, so I guess it's been a good opening week for me. Todd Pletcher has three wins, I think I've picked three winners, so we're right there together, and neither of us are very happy. Of course, he is the trainer of Lawyer Ron and Ready's Image, undoubtedly the two most impressive stakes performers from opening week. As for me, my only significant score was on Diabolical in the Vanderbilt, when my sleeper pick Simon Pure got his nose down in front of Benny The Bull I was left with a nice tri pay-off a few times and wishing Saratoga offered supers on every race like all other modern racetracks, as the Commentator-less super would have been very interesting to see.

The big controversy from the weekend is now how legit Lawyer Ron's final time in the Whitney was. On a track that wasn't exceptionally fast he ran an exceptionally fast 1:46 3/5. Could Lawyer Ron have run a 120? Maybe, it wouldn't be the strangest thing I've ever seen in racing history. It would not surprise me at all if it's legit. That would mean Ginger Punch ran a very slow race by grade 1 winning standards to win the Go For Wand with a 95. And, it would means Diabolical only ran a 103 winning the Vanderbilt. BUT, in watching the races this isn't unbelievable. Ginger Punch beat very little when Ermine completely failed to fire. It was a bunch of fillies that run in the high 80's and low 90's, it was a very bad group. In the Vanderbilt it became clear that the Beyer's Benny The Bull and Cougar Cat earned at Prairie last out were inflated, and I was proven right on Commentator, Attila's Storm put him to the test early, and he laid down. Diabolical looked done at the top of the stretch, but stopped less than the rest of the field and got the win. It definitely wasn't his best effort.

So in that context, yeah, maybe Lawyer Ron did run that fast. He solidified himself as the top handicap horse in training by crushing the best handicap field that's been assembled this summer. If Surf Cat or Discreet Cat don't step up big in the next few months, then the three-year-olds are the only one's with a shot to knock off Ron. I'll get to one of those 3YO's in just a minute, but I have to mention the Diana first. No race this weekend left me as hopelessly confused as the Diana did. My Typhoon, the regally bred half sister to Galileo, has never been at her best when forced to rate, she's never been her best at 9 furlongs, and she's never won a grade 1. All that changed on Saturday. Patrick Biancone's "rabbit" Countess Scala didn't do her job at all setting very moderate fractions. Makderah looked empty at the top of the stretch and none of the Biancone runners fired at all. Hand it to My Typhoon, she is an exceptional filly who looked very good in winning, despite her horribly underlaid price.

To the 3YO front, incredibly Street Sense was the first Derby winner since Thunder Gulch to run at Saratoga, and he made his effort a winning one, despite being much less visually impressive than he was in the Derby or even the Preakness. Expect the Beyer to come back in the dull 102-105 range. He was all out to beat the marginally talented CP West by 1 1/2 lengths...not exactly a superstar effort. Maybe he just needed the race, maybe he was too forwardly placed early, I don't know...all I know is it certainly wouldn't make me overly confident about his Travers chances.

Calder's Extreme Day had bad luck for the second straight year as a torrential downpour severely hurt the card and rained the King George Backwards into being the "King George rightways on dirt." The Rocketman was two furlongs of pure excitement as the old champ Caller One knocked off the two furlong king Rain Song in one of the best races of the weekend. That's right, I don't care if it was a two furlong race in the slop, it was a great race to watch, and it was cool to see Caller One keep going so strong.

3 comments:

Unknown said...

Dave,

I think you missed the most interesting part of the Jim Dandy - Street Sense finally getting stuck on the rail. I think it proved what we should have thought all along, and that's that Street Sense needs the turn to build that momentum effectively. Had another good horse, such as Curlin, Hard Spun, or Any Given Saturday shown up on Sunday, SS would have lost b/c of that. Borel cannot pull that crap in the Travers, or he WILL lose, plain and simple. Should be interesting to see what happens in the Haskell next week, as it should be an infinitely stronger race.

Phil

Anonymous said...

Well I think Street Sense had a bit of an off race and still won (granted the field was weak) but thats what champs are supposed to do. I think he will gear it up and end up being the BC Classic winner unless the Monmouth tendenancy towards speed does him in.

I for one think Hard Spun is finished at Classic distances and should give something more like a mile ago. Curlin should give the Classic a good go too but I am still skeptical of Lawyer Ron.

Unknown said...

Good good good......